Negative influence gradually digested gold to bottom out but the outlook is unknown
International spot gold Monday (August 29), after Fed Chairman Yellen and Vice-President Fisher delivered a hawkish speech last Friday, they rebounded slightly from the five-week low, and the US market hit a high of $1325.01 per ounce. The price of gold has shown signs of picking up. At the meeting of the central banks of Jackson Hole in Wyoming, USA, Fed Chairman Yellen said in a speech that the improvement of the US economy has supported another expectation of raising interest rates, and Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Fisher also believes that the United States will The rate hike is still in the process. The hawkish speech of the Fed’s heavyweight officials once caused the gold to skyrocket and plunged. After the market gradually digested the bad speech on Monday, the gold decline was eased. The US personal consumption expenditure announced in July recorded growth for four consecutive months, pushing up interest rate expectations during the year. The US dollar continued its gains after the rally last Friday. As of press time, the US dollar index rose 0.23% to 95.70. US stocks ended down and turned higher, the Dow rose 0.66% to 18421.29 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.49% to 2,179.67 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.26% to 5,232.66 points. Crude oil fell, the US oil index fell 1.6% to $46.86 per barrel; the oil index fell 1.42% to $49.21 per barrel. The market is widely expected to raise the possibility of a rate hike during the year. The CME Group's federal watch tool shows that the market is likely to raise interest rates by 30% in September, with an increase of 18% since Yellen and Fisher. Analysts said that under such circumstances, the weakness of gold will continue for a few weeks, and the price of gold may stabilize after slipping to $1,270 per ounce. After entering September, the pressure on gold is quite large. Even if there is no interest rate hike in September, the probability of a rate hike in December is very high. The US federal interest rate fund futures have shown that the probability of a rate hike in December is as high as 50%. This week's heavyweight data is August's non-farm payrolls data and unemployment rate, which will be released on Friday. The performance of the data will play an important role in the decision-making of the Fed's September 20-21 meeting. The monthly employment report performed very strongly. According to analysts surveyed by foreign media, the number of newly-employed people in August was 185,000. In July, the number of employees increased by 255,000. The unemployment rate may slightly drop to 4.8%. The US Futures Trading Commission's CFTC data on Friday showed that hedge funds and wealth managers increased their long positions in the New York gold futures contract on the week of August 23. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR positions decreased by 1.78 tons to 956.59 tons last Friday. US personal consumption expenditure in July recorded growth for four consecutive months, pushing up interest rate expectations during the year The US Department of Commerce (DOC) data on Monday (August 29) showed that the monthly rate of personal consumption expenditure in the United States recorded growth for four consecutive months, indicating that domestic consumption will continue to drive economic growth in the second half of the United States. Detailed data shows that the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) monthly rate increased by 0.3% in July, in line with the estimated growth of 0.3%, and personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% in June. The data also showed that personal income rose by 0.4% in July, in line with the expected increase of 0.4%, and increased by 0.3% in June. As income growth exceeded spending growth, the July savings rate rose to 5.7%. After the data was released, Reuters commented that the data was in line with expectations and has been growing for four consecutive months, mainly because of strong demand in the US, the tightening of the labor market has led to higher wages, and the value of the property and the rise in stock prices have increased family wealth. This will help boost economic growth, offset the sharp decline in inventories and the impact of falling business investment, or suggest that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Outlook outlook Pradeep Unni, director of global services research and trading at Richcomm, said that "the weakness of gold will continue into the next few weeks, and we expect gold prices to stabilize after slipping to $1,270 per ounce. The likelihood of a rate hike in September appears to have increased significantly, most economies The data shows improvement. Both September and December are likely to raise interest rates, and further data in the future will only reinforce this view." INTL FCStone said in the report that “into September, gold is under great pressure, and market participants are more willing to raise interest rates, after they collected the speeches of Fed officials last Friday.†FXStreet: Gold has digested Yellen's hawkish remarks? On Monday (August 29th), the Asian market, Yellen's hawkish remarks added fuel to the dollar's gains, and the price of gold fell to around $1318 per ounce. In addition, the other major currencies fell to a two-week low against the dollar, and gold has closed at last week's low before Yellen's speech. This relative resilience further suggests that gold may have already digested the possibility of Yellen's hawkish speech in advance. Traders are now waiting for heavy US data – US personal income and expenditure reports and non-agricultural employment. Gold technical analysis If it can break through the intraday high of $1,324, it will open the door to the previous Friday's high of $1,340.50; if it can break through, the down target will point to $1,354.40, the August 18 high. On the downside, if it falls below the support level of $1312 (the July 21 high), it will face a risk of falling to $1,300. If it continues to fall, it will test $1,287 (the June 13 high). ). Gartman: gold and US bonds are associated with abnormal gold will rise further Gartman Letters founder (Gartman Letter) and well-known investor Dennis Gartman said on Sunday (August 28) that gold and the US Treasury market tend to move in the opposite direction because of the changing In the economic environment, investors will convert between the two assets for demand hedging. However, such correlations have changed in recent months. Gartman said in an interview on the same day that "the past 40 years, the trend of US debt and gold has been the opposite, but since June this year, gold has moved in the same direction as the US debt market." Gartman pointed out that "if the recent correlation between gold and US debt is broken and returns to the negative correlation in the past, the price of gold may rise further by 40-50 US dollars, while US Treasury bonds may fall by 3-4 basis points. ." Proofreading: Charlotte Polyester Cotton Woven Ribbons Natural and durable: The twill webbing is natural in style, durable, and has good air permeability. It can be washed and is not easy to break, bringing you a different experience Woven Ribbon,Polyester Cotton Woven Ribbons,Striped Woven Ribbons Yangzhou Youju E-commerce Co.,Ltd , https://www.yzxygarments.com
(US personal consumption expenditure monthly rate chart source: FX168 financial network) 
(US core PCE price index annual rate chart source: FX168 financial network) 
(Source: FX168 Financial Network) 
(Spot gold daily chart source: FX168 financial network)
(Editor: Fang Fengjiao HF055)
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