European silver decided to stir the market, the dollar soared, the rebound in gold was blocked and hurt.

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Original title: European silver decided to stir the market, the dollar soared, gold rebounded, blocked and hurt

FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News International spot gold on Thursday (December 8) after the European Central Bank meeting due to the strong rebound of the US dollar and fell again, the US market hit a minimum of 1168.79 US dollars / ounce, the European Central Bank decided to launch a special The third round of quantitative easing (QE); extending QE to December 2017, but reducing the asset purchase plan from April on the scale of bond purchases reduced by 20 billion euros. Gold, which was stronger before the European Central Bank issued its statement, fell after the decision was made, while the US dollar index reversed and entered the upside, making gold priced in dollars more expensive for other currency holders. The number of US initials announced last week was 258,000, which is in line with expectations, indicating that the labor market is still strong.

On Thursday, the US dollar soared under the favorable support of the European Bank's resolution. As of press time, the US dollar index rose 0.94% to 101.19 points. US stocks continued to rise on Thursday, the Dow rose 0.08% to 19,581.29 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 2,443.50 points; the Nasdaq rose 0.41% to 5,541.64 points. Crude oil stopped falling on Thursday, the US oil index rose 0.94% to $50.24/barrel; the oil index rose 0.68% to $53.36/barrel.

Gold has fallen nearly 12% since the US election peaked at $1337.40 per ounce. Analysts said that if the ECB can trigger the euro/dollar to weaken again and break the key level of 104.58-105, the dollar will rise next, which is very painful for gold. In addition, the impact on the gold is also the Fed will tighten policy expectations, next week the Fed meeting will likely raise interest rates, which will increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. According to the CME Group's federal watch tool, interest rate futures suggest that the Fed will raise interest rates by 95% next Tuesday and Wednesday. The gold may continue to fall and retest the low of $1,157 per ounce. However, gold will also be supported by the Fed's decision to lead investors to profit-taking and year-end closings, but this is only temporary and gold will weaken next year. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR continued to lighten up 0.72% to 863.67 tons on Wednesday. Since November, positions have been reduced by 8%.

The number of US initial jobless claims was 258,000, which was in line with expectations and slipped from a five-month high.

According to a government report on Thursday (December 8), the number of US initials last week was in line with expectations, falling from a five-month high last week, indicating that the labor market remains strong.

According to data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL), the number of initial jobless claims in the US on December 3 was 258,000, which was below the threshold of 300,000 for 92 consecutive weeks, estimated at 258,000. The value is 268,000.

(The number of initial jobless claims in the United States, source: FX168 Financial Network)

More data shows that the average weekly jobless claims rose by 1,000 to 225,500, with a previous value of 251,500. The market believes that this data can better reflect the employment market conditions, because the fluctuation between weeks and weeks is removed.

In addition, the number of people who renewed their unemployment benefits in the week of November 26 was 2.005 million, which was revised to 2.084 million in the previous week.

The number of initial jobless claims is based on the number of people who applied for unemployment benefits for the first time last week. The data is a good complement to the monthly employment report. When more people apply for unemployment benefits, it means employment is reduced, and vice versa. Investors can use the report to seek clues about economic growth, but the data is volatile.

Reuters commented that the number of people claiming unemployment benefits in the United States until December 3, the number of people in the US at the beginning of the week fell from a five-month high last week, which was below the threshold of 300,000 for 92 consecutive weeks, the longest since 1970. In the continuous cycle, the number of initial requests is expected to continue to fluctuate this year, but it is still in line with the trend of tight labor market; and the good momentum of the labor market will further promote the momentum of economic sustainability.

Too unexpected! Draghi is extremely "doves". EUR/USD has plummeted more than 100 points.

The pound show debut! At 20:45 on Thursday, Beijing time, the European Central Bank finally acted and launched a special third round of quantitative easing (QE): extending QE to December 2017, and reducing the bond purchases by 20 billion yuan from April...

The European Central Bank’s first launch of the quantitative easing program in March 2015 was originally scheduled to end in September 2016. However, due to the fact that inflation has not recovered to 2% in the foreseeable future, the plan was extended to March 2017 in December last year, and in March this year, the total monthly asset purchases will be increased from 60 billion euros to 80 billion. EUR. This means that any extension of the plan will be the third round of QE for the ECB.

Then at 21:30, the much-anticipated European Central Bank President Draghi press conference unveiled the mystery. Draghi offers more details: From January 2017, the ECB will adjust the QE parameters, and the ECB can buy assets with yields below the deposit rate.

But Draghi added that buying bonds below the deposit rate is an option and not a necessity. In addition, Draghi said that the European Central Bank will maintain the stimulus needed to raise inflation. Be prepared to take all the tools within the permissions if necessary.

In response to the extension of QE, Della said that there are two options, including extending QE for 6 months and investing 80 billion euros in monthly debt purchases; eventually the ECB will extend QE for 9 months and invest 60 billion euros per month. There is general agreement.

Since Draghi said that the European Central Bank can buy assets with a yield lower than the deposit rate, the euro/dollar fell sharply by more than 100 points, and the lowest hit 1.0638.

Outlook outlook

Brian Lan, managing director of GoldSilver Central, a gold trader based in Singapore, said, "As the Fed meeting approaches, the Fed’s rate hike is positive. I think this is already in gold. We will also see some reactions, recently The low of $1,157 per ounce may be tested again."

ABN AMRO futures strategist Georgette Boele said that "if the ECB can trigger the euro/dollar to weaken again and break the key level of 104.58-105, the dollar will rise next, which is very painful for gold." Boele added, However, gold will also be supported by the Fed's decision to lead investors to profit-taking and year-end closings, but this is only temporary and gold will weaken next year.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) said it is cautious about 2017 gold.

Francisco Blanch, head of commodities and derivatives, said that the rise in strong dollar and US dollar yields is two hurdles for gold next year. Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects gold to be around 1,200 in mid-2017, close to the current gold price.

Blanch added that there may be two situations under Trump's leadership: the first is a modest increase in US deficit spending, and the bond yields are basically unchanged; the second is a sharp rise in deficit spending to push up bond yields.

Shyam Rajan, head of US bond strategy, said that because long-term yields are still limited, the five-year US debt may rise sharply in 2017, flattening the yield curve. Higher short-term yields may spur the Federal Reserve (FED) to raise interest rates more aggressively.

Another negative factor for gold is the real interest rate in an inflation-constrained environment. Rajan said that the main theme of 2017 is fiscal easing and monetary tightening, and real interest rates will rise.

At 23:35 Beijing time, spot gold reported 1170.81 US dollars / ounce, down 2.64 US dollars, a decrease of 0.22%.

(Spot gold half hour chart source: FX168 financial network)

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