Breaking the ice point: taking history as a breakthrough, the central bank’s annual meeting will break the game and the crude oil market will usher in a new trend.

Today is a big day, we finally ushered in the 2017 annual global central bank meeting, Jackson Hall annual meeting has always been hailed as a barometer of the inflection point of monetary policy, past experience can be seen, every meeting will be released by important hospitals All important signals, in 2015, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen emphasized the reasons for raising interest rates at the annual meeting. In 2012, Bernanke, the then chairman of the Federal Reserve, hinted at the details of QE3. In the past few years, almost every annual meeting of the central bank will make gold rise, especially in 2011. Gold rose 3.2% on the day. In the next few years, the strength of gold rose on the day of the annual meeting, so it is clear that from 10 years. Since the trend, 16 years have bottomed out, and it is not ruled out that there will be a major turning point this year. The main reason is that the current European economy is strong, investors are full of confidence in the future trend of the euro, and the dollar is weak, the market has been worried about the dollar. Continued decline, although the US economy has shown signs of recovery, but Trump's uncertainties make institutions generally not optimistic about the prospects of the dollar. So obviously it is judged according to the historical trend, we are doing long operations yesterday, and keep the short-term line to continue to hold, the short-term shipping decision is aimed at today's market layout, today will also consider the low-position layout more than the main, because the history Experience has shown that market bulls tend to choose to counterattack on this node, we have been waiting for the bulls to shoot, or will be able to do so today.

Yesterday was someone telling you that the daily line was closed, and the rebound was an opportunity to give up, 1284 was early enough, is it still? 1287 Is there anyone who tells you that there is no resistance in 1290, and continue to add warehouses, is it still? The gold attack on the 1292 line was blocked and returned to 1287. Is there anyone else who said to you, you see that I am right, 1292 must not be broken, 1287 continues to be empty, is it still? ? But the gold, has been oscillating upwards, is it still? Tell you, you can see the picture! ! More than 1282 in the morning, 1284 is still more, 1287 continues to be more, it is so capricious! It’s so direct, the Broken Army once again won a great victory! The only regret is 1284, the deviation of 0.8 dollars, failed to enter! ! However, it does not affect us to make money. Crude oil was more than 47.5 in the morning yesterday. In the evening, eia continued to go directly to the 47.8 line, and at night it reached the 48.3 line and profited.

Fundamental news, affected by the news of Trump's tax reform, the US dollar rose moderately in the Asian market yesterday, while the gold trend was biased downward. However, as Trump threatened to raise funds for the construction of the US-Mexico border wall and let the US government close, and warned that it is possible to unilaterally end the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations, gold reversed its downward trend and began to fluctuate. In addition, the important US economic data released on Wednesday was mixed. In August, the US Markit service PMI was better than expected and climbed to a new high in 28 months. However, the US initial Markit manufacturing PMI in August was worse than expected, hitting a two-month low; the US annual new home sales total July data was less than expected, the lowest in seven months. Today the annual meeting of Jackson Hole Central Bank is held. The global central bank's annual meeting will last for three days. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak on "financial stability" on Friday. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will speak on "Global Economic Vitality" on Saturday. The market will be highly concerned at that time, aiming to find clues about the prospects of monetary policy from the comments of senior central bank officials.

Crude oil On Wednesday night, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced that crude oil inventories fell for eight consecutive weeks, and oil prices were boosted. However, the EIA crude oil report also showed that US domestic crude oil production climbed to the highest level since the week of July 17, 2015, which limited the increase in oil prices. The US oil futures for October delivery closed at $48.41 per barrel, up 1.2%. The oil futures for October delivery on the Intercontinental Futures Exchange closed at $52.57 per barrel, up 1.4%. EIA recorded a decline in crude oil inventories, gasoline inventories and Cushing stocks for the week ended Aug. 18. Although EIA crude oil inventories fell slightly less than expected, crude oil inventories have fallen for eight consecutive weeks. Crude oil traders are closely watching the impact of tropical storm “Harvey” on US refineries along the Gulf Coast. Oil and gas producers along the Gulf Coast and Louisiana are preparing for the upcoming tropical storm. Crude oil production on the Gulf Coast accounts for 17% of total US production, while more than 45% of refineries in the United States are distributed here. Tropical storm “Harvey” may hinder oil and gas production and refining in the region.

Gold received a large Yangxian line yesterday, so it is very in line with our judgment yesterday. So at present, the three daily lines have formed multi-barrels, and the formation of multi-barrels often appears in the rising relay pattern, which is very consistent with this factor. . Gold opened at 1284.8 yesterday, closing at 1290.4, the highest hit 1291.2, the lowest reached 1282.5. After the Asian market opened, gold began to fall to the bottom of the 1282.5 line, and then began to rise, the European time began to enter the trend of volatility, until the US disk began to appear after a small outbreak began to callback. Then the overall trend is that the Asian plate bottoms, the European market rose, and the US market ended.

The current trend of the gold 4 hour level confirms the inverted hammer line received the day before yesterday, and closes the critical shape of the hammer line near the key support level. Now, the reliability of the inverted hammer line is formed, and the lead wire is long enough. And there is no thorn in the bottom, the most important thing is that before this line is formed, it is a clear round of decline in the small cycle. These three factors are the important reasons for the formation of the hammer line. It is also one of the core factors for continuing the thinking on the K line. The form on the K line is currently low and the low is not broken, the high position is not broken, and there is a triangle. The meaning, but the high drop pressure line has been broken, so it is much seen from the K line. From the moving average, the market continued to rise after receiving the cross star near 30MA1287 and the subsequent K line continued to break through 30MA and successfully stood on the 30MA1287 line. Then the probability of subsequent bullishness is large, and the directivity of the moving average itself is obviously long.

From the indicator point of view, KDJ rose from the low level to the current high level last night. At present, KDJ's J line has reached the extreme point of 110. It is obvious that if gold continues to rise, it will be passivated at a high level after a small correction of KDJ withdrawal. If there is no passivation, the probability of falling is greater. On the MACD point of view, the current MACD fast and slow line is about to be a golden fork, and the kinetic energy red column is about to open. It is clear that this week, there has never been such a bullish behavior on the MACD. Once the inertia trend is formed, gold will usher in a wave. Big rise. On the whole, the current market has the possibility to go to the unilateral bull market, but at the same time, we must also guard against the high market volatility. Then we have the overall advantage and disadvantages. We finally choose to build multiple warehouses under the 1290 and 1287 batches to deal with two possibilities. It is recommended that 1290 be long, stop loss is 1285, and target is 1300.

The 4 hour level of silver is also in the upward trend. There is a slight retracement at present, but the bullish trend does not change. It is clear that we have always insisted on bullish in this market, but the current trend of silver is weak and completely backward. In the trend of gold, we do not recommend silver before the recent silver has not improved significantly. From the K line, the silver bulls gradually began to clear up, step by step, after a long period of shocks, the Yang line gradually began to become the dominant force in the trend, although still subject to certain selling pressure, but after all, it became The bulls have the upper hand. On the moving average, it is more obvious that there is a behavior of entanglement. So yesterday, I mentioned that the K line has been entangled with 60MA for a long time. According to the historical trend, the probability of a big rise later, it is clear that after breaking the 30MA, the moving average is much The probability is gradually increasing. In terms of indicators, the trend of simultaneous gold, KDJ passivation is bullish, while the MACD low gold fork and hit the Yangzhu. The comprehensive index of silver and the K line continued to rise.

The current trend of crude oil 4 hours has reached the high level. From the past K line, since the morning star of 46.45, the market has risen all the way. It is very obvious that the big line has become very much and stronger than the big line. Contrary to the previous downtrend, the current big Yangxian line often needs at least two large Yinxian digests. From the perspective of the game, the bulls are dominant. From a structural point of view, we think that from 50.19 to 46.45. In order to fall five waves, then the current trend is to complete the ABC three waves. If ABC is finished, it will definitely come out of the new rising wave type, and it is not excluded that it is already rising weakly. The current crude oil is about to come out of a new cycle, and the new cycle may continue to be strong and then strong. From the average line, since the previous judgment is correct, then we also expect to continue yesterday's average line combination pattern. The market will attack the 30MA line and will reverse the market. In the future, there will be a sharp rise in the use of the medium-term moving average to drag the long-term line. Reversal, although the current long-term line is pointing downwards, but the short-term and medium-term is upward, then the overall trend of the average line is bullish.

In terms of indicators, the current KDJ is at a relatively high J line of more than 100, then this situation is considered to be a high probability of a stage high, then the probability of falling in the future according to inertia is greater. On the MACD point of view, the fast-line slow line and the continuous entanglement near the zero-track are currently appearing. The fast-line slow-line is near the zero-rail near the golden fork, and the kinetic energy red column appears smoothly. Then the MACD is a bullish market according to the inertia. On the whole, the current trend of crude oil is more complicated. If it fails to break through the previous high, it will bring about obvious differences. Therefore, the trend of US crude oil in the current small cycle is more biased towards the short-selling trend. We believe that we believe that the crude oil is measured by reference to the principle of trading. The probability of success in the high position is greater, so the day's operation suggests 48.5 short stop loss 49, and the target is 47.8.

On the whole, the current gold trend is mostly dominated, with the support below 1287, 1281 and the upper resistance at 1295 and 1300. Silver is mainly accompanied by the gold callback, but the target should not be too radical, the support below is 16.92, 16.74, and the upper resistance is 17.23, 17.35. In terms of crude oil, the defensive thinking is not broken. The upper resistance is 48.72, 49.12, and the lower support is 47.81 and 47.35. Today's global central bank annual meeting, the actual impact due to its uncertain factors, can be listed as five-star data, cautious trading.

Breaking the ice point of the sixteen-character policy: the cash for the emperor is the king's point for the stop loss to the holy